Trump, Tariffs and Trade Wars: What will 2025 bring for EVs?

LONDON, UK. December 2nd, 2024 - The Electric Car Scheme is revealing what it predicts will happen to the EV market in 2025 in the UK, as well as what that will mean for drivers, roads and the UK’s charging infrastructure. 

2025 is set to be a transformative year for electric vehicles in the UK and beyond. Donald Trump will re-enter the White House in January, after promising to end subsidies in the US, while closer to home UK vehicle manufacturers will have a new target of 28% of sales being EVs.

Over the past few months, data from The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has indicated that battery electric vehicles may finally be seeing a jump in demand and deliveries. In October 2024, they made up 20.7% of all vehicle deliveries. While this is still below targets set to reach the government’s 2030 deadline, it represents a significant jump from just 15.6% in October 2023. An increase of similar proportions could put EV market share up near 2025’s target of 28%, which would represent a significant turning point in the growth of the market. 

Alongside the increasing demand for new EVs, the used market has become more and more mature during 2024. This is perhaps demonstrated best by the fact that since introducing a used EV salary sacrifice offering, The Electric Car Scheme has quickly seen used EVs make up more than 50% of sales. This is hardly surprising given the dramatic decrease in the price of used EVs and research which shows that for 68% of people, price is the biggest barrier to getting an EV. As more and more people finish leases and upgrade to newer models, used EVs will become a more important part of the market, opening up access to a wider range of customers. 

It is predicted that the UK will be home to over 100,000 public EV chargers by mid-2025. That is over 10x the number of petrol stations in the UK, which has been dropping since 2000. This increased pace of installation and the greater proportion of rapid and ultra-rapid chargers could reduce range anxiety and charging issues, which for 40% of people is a significant barrier to getting an EV. 

Couple this with new innovations in home charging, including off-peak smart charging and The Electric Car Scheme’s new salary sacrifice charging offering, and EV drivers could be paying less than ever per mile for their driving. This increasingly makes driving an EV an attractive proposition as petrol prices refuse to come down. 

Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January is set to have significant impacts on many areas of the world economy, it could provide a boost for EV affordability in the UK. As tariffs and the removal of the generous tax credits introduced by President Biden make foreign made EVs more expensive for American consumers, manufacturers may look elsewhere, including the UK. This increased supply of cheaper Chinese EVs could provide a big boost to uptake. 

Thom Groot, CEO of The Electric Car Scheme commented: "The electric vehicle market is on the verge of a major transformation by 2025, and it’s an exciting time for both the industry and consumers. With battery technology advancing and governments around the world ramping up support, we’ll see EVs become increasingly accessible and affordable. As cheaper Chinese EVs become available, and the used EV market matures, we could see EVs available for less than £200 a month, a much more affordable price point.

"EV uptake was never going to be linear, like many things it goes through peaks and troughs, but we could be on the cusp of a significant jump as affordability increases rapidly. The UK has a long way to go to reach the 2030 target, but there is significant desire to achieve this from consumers. This is exactly why we set up The Electric Car Scheme, to help make it simpler and cheaper to get behind the wheel of an electric car.”